Friday, September 17, 2010

Projections for September-October

A test of 1120 is highly probable. A slice through /ESZ0 to 1109 indicates a broken uptrend, and a test of 1090 would be a short term support point (+2 points for each day forward). Breaking this uptrend channel implies a test of 1080 (+.5 points for each day forward).

Elliott Bears might imply an inverted cycle: 2007 high as start of "2", 2008 low as "3", April 2009 peek as "4", placing us headed toward cycle "5" (implying a violent test of the 2008 low and overshoot).

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Putting on my bull hat.. /ESZ0 could be in a cup & handle. Impulse ends at 1154 (+.5 points for each day forward.)

There is enough wiggle room for the /ESZ0 to fall to 1087 (+.5 points each day forward), and still launch to 1154.

Elliott Bulls (very few out there) ;-) Might say cycle: 1999 high = "A", 2001 low = "B", 2006 high = "C", 2008 low = uncharted territory, making April 2010 "1", July 2010 "2", and now heading to a "unattainable grab the pullback" that never comes as the market relentlessly lunges higher.

The positive bias in my days forward estimates is a good way to indicate a short term uptrend based on the technical channels I observed on the daily /ESZ0 1 year timeframe.

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