Gov't Banks Coin on Banks

The banks payback of gov't obligations has potentially net $4B. (http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/08/us_government_makes_4b_profit.html)

Good news, except for banks that are not ready to pay back Uncle Sam.. e.g BoA and C. It seems JPM and GS are the best positioned right now in terms of gov't obligations being cast off.

What About Underwear?

GDP, less bad, still negative.
Consumer confidence highest since Aug 2007 (recent market peek).
Jobs, still purging at over 500k/month.

But, men's underwear sales are improving.. so the recession must be over, right?

Fidelity Leveraged ETF Agreement

Sign of the times. Wield leveraged ETFs (from Rydex, ProFunds, Direxion, ProShares, PowerShares, or Van Eck Associates), and you now first see:

Trade Message

(000806) You are placing an order for a security that requires you to execute Fidelity's Designated Investments Agreement for this account.

Click here to review and execute the Designated Investments Agreement, and for important information about this investment. If you do not agree to the terms of the agreement and review the important information, you may not purchase these products through Fidelity. Only account owners and not individuals with authorized trading access can accept the terms of the agreement.

For additional detail on how these products work and potential risks, please visit Leveraged/Inverse ETFs .

Followed by:

Leveraged/Inverse Agreement

Leveraged Products are intended for very experienced, aggressive, sophisticated investors who actively manage their investments daily and who understand the risks of using leverage as well as the consequences of investing in securities that use leverage to achieve a daily or monthly objective.

Leveraged Products are designed to provide some multiple of the performance of their respective benchmarks (or inverse of their performance), over a set time frame, which is referred to as a rebalancing period. The rebalancing period is typically daily but some Leveraged Products seek monthly rather than daily investment results, in which case the rebalancing period is a month. The performance of Leveraged Products if held longer than their rebalancing period can differ significantly from the performance (or inverse of the performance) of their target benchmarks or multiple of their target benchmarks over the same period. This can occur for various reasons including the impact of compounding and the effect of leverage, the impact of fees, expenses, and costs associated with the use of leveraged investment techniques, and the investment by the Leveraged Products in securities not included in the indices underlying their benchmarks. The magnitude of this difference can be particularly high in volatile markets. Utilization of leverage involves special risks and is speculative. Leveraged Products, therefore, are very risky. A Leveraged Product is unlikely to provide a simple multiple of its benchmark's performance over more than its rebalancing period.

Read the prospectus carefully to make sure that Leveraged Products are right for you and that you understand their unique features, risks and fees.

Designated Investments Agreement

I understand that from time to time Fidelity may determine to accept orders for certain investments (Designated Investments) only from self-directed, sophisticated, experienced, investors who have represented to Fidelity that they do their own investment research and analysis, and who do not rely to any extent upon Fidelity for advice, information or direction relating to their investments. I understand I must agree to this Designated Investments Agreement in order to purchase such investments through Fidelity. I understand that this Designated Investments Agreement applies to any and all investments that Fidelity has identified or may in the future identify as a Designated Investment. A current list of Designated Investments is available at Fidelity.com. I understand that the Designated Investments list may be updated without notice to me and that I should review it from time to time. I acknowledge that many complex or highly risky products are not on the Designated Investments list and that even though one or more products are not on the Designated Investments list does not mean that they are not complex or highly risky. I am not relying on Fidelity to identify all such investments. Before making any investment, I understand I should review and understand each investment and its benefits and risks.

By clicking "I Agree" below, I represent and agree:

I am a sophisticated, experienced investor; My investment objective is "most aggressive;" My risk tolerance is high; That you can lose all your investment. I can afford to lose some or all of any investment I make in a Designated Investment, and I have sufficient resources at Fidelity or elsewhere to sustain such losses; I am responsible for educating myself regarding the investments I make including reading the applicable offering documents (including, where applicable, the prospectus and Statement of Additional Information) before I invest so I am aware of the investment objectives, unique features and risks of the investments as well as the fees and expenses associated with them and I have done so; I independently analyze the risks of investing in Designated Investments and am capable of doing so. I make my own investment decisions and will do so as to all Designated Investments I may purchase through Fidelity; Fidelity does not, and I understand will not, recommend or solicit the purchase of Designated Investments. To the extent I will have or have had communications with any Fidelity representatives about a Designated Investment, I agree I am not relying on those communications as recommendations or solicitations; I have not and will not rely on Fidelity or any Fidelity representative for advice, information or recommendations regarding Designated Investments, their nature or features, their risk profiles, or their suitability for me; I am not relying today and will not rely in the future on Fidelity to monitor my investments in Designated Investments nor advise me concerning them; and I will promptly advise Fidelity if any of these representations are no longer true. I understand and agree that Fidelity will rely on my representations above, and that I am bound by them as to all my accounts at Fidelity.

ST, LT Predictions

Short-mid term: potential short cover rally to 1050. (Bull* rally continues)
Mid term: potential fall to 950. (Elliott)
Long term: potential drop to 460. (Fib & Gann of highs & lows)

Fractal: There is high similarity to the 2000-2003 bear market drop. We may be in a 2003-like recovery stage, entering a new bull market for 2-3 years, or possibly the 50% run from the March 2009 based on vapors, and we form a secondary 'M' (double top) pattern, starting the market on a run to retest the March lows at 'the devil's bottom' (SPX 666).