Monday, April 19, 2010

This Weeks Market Forecast

How about a ramp & camp Monday (scared shorts, blaming the PPT), with more sideways action until the teeth of a reform bill, or additional charges are exposed. My view: sideways range this week, unless $TNX sinks down into no-mans-land.

The option spreads widened on Thursday, then tightened on Friday as Thursday's fear was realized on Friday. If option spreads continue to tighten, and the market continues a sideways to negative move, the option writers are tell us a new trend is forming. This should be observable by Thursday or Friday.

If option spreads widen, and the market blasts higher or lower, expect a reversal in the current trend.

Let's see if the 0.5% dip buyers show up today, or if Friday's dip buyers are feeling like knife catchers, and drop the knife today.

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